Airspace over the Texas border south of El Paso was abruptly shut down last week after U.S. authorities used a laser to destroy what they believed were Mexican cartel drones — which later reportedly turned out to be party balloons.
Following the incident, Vanda Felbab-Brown, who directs the Brookings Institution’s Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, spoke with OCCRP about how Mexican cartels actually use drones and what developments may lie ahead as pressure from Washington and Mexico City increases.
Reports now say the objects over El Paso were balloons, not cartel drones. However, your research has examined real cartel drone activity. How are they being used?
Mexican cartels have employed drones for more than a decade for numerous purposes, including surveillance of law enforcement. They also use them to smuggle drugs into Mexican prisons, transport contraband such as cellphones, and move narcotics across the U.S.–Mexico border. As drone payload capacity improves, these operations have become more practical, though current drones are still poorly suited for moving large cocaine shipments.
Cartels have also used drones in direct attacks, including against police, as well as against rival groups and civilian populations in Jalisco. In Michoacán, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel has deployed drones to lay explosive devices and minefields in order to attack villages and clear areas where it lacks strong territorial control.
U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed cartels are running Mexico. How accurate is that?
Cartels do control parts of Mexico. In many rural regions, they function as the de facto authority. They typically do not declare independent states, but they do impose conditions on officials and police across many policy areas — for example, influencing licensing decisions for alcohol outlets. They also determine how freely local law enforcement can operate.
At the state level, they wield major influence through corruption and intimidation. Beyond illegal markets, they have penetrated numerous legal sectors, including retail goods, alcohol, cigarettes, legal fishing, and logging. Until President Sheinbaum took office in 2024, their territorial and political reach was expanding.
The Sheinbaum administration has shown greater resistance, partly under pressure from the Trump administration. After the perceived failures of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government, the new administration appears more willing to act.
In my view, U.S. pressure — including terrorist designations, tariffs, linking USMCA to security, and the threat of military force — has significantly motivated Mexico’s tougher stance.
However, if Washington actually launches military strikes, it could reduce its current leverage. The threat itself has been the main source of influence.
When El Paso airspace was closed, some suggested it might precede U.S. military action in Mexico. Did you think so?
Military action is certainly possible. During the 2024 campaign, Trump and many Republicans supported strikes in Mexico, believing they would eliminate the cartels. I disagree. Only a prolonged counterinsurgency campaign could do that — and neither the United States nor Mexico is likely to accept such a scenario.
The options being discussed — airstrikes, drone strikes, or limited special forces raids — would likely destroy some labs and capture key figures, but similar strategies have been used in Mexico for decades with limited structural impact.
You recently wrote about possible cartel retaliation. What might that look like?
The response would depend on the scale of strikes. Limited operations would likely be absorbed, with cartels continuing business largely as usual.
They might also try to stir nationalist opposition, portraying themselves as defenders against foreign intervention.
If U.S. action became extensive, cartels could target Mexican officials or security forces and potentially U.S. personnel in Mexico. Consulates could become targets, though that would represent significant escalation.
Initially, Mexican targets would be most likely. Over time, U.S. nationals in Mexico could face increased risk. Direct attacks inside the United States would be an extreme and unlikely step.
What about future cartel drone threats?
Criminal drone use is already a reality. As commercial drone traffic grows, distinguishing legitimate operations from illicit ones will become increasingly difficult.
Criminal groups may attempt to spoof electronic drone identifiers to disguise illegal cargo as legitimate shipments. The expansion of drone traffic — both legal and illegal — creates risks for aviation safety.
As a result, cartel drone activity and countermeasures could increasingly disrupt civilian air travel. Authorities will need to balance enforcement with minimizing disruption, though impacts on passenger and cargo aviation are likely.